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Bloody valentine: dollar finds no love

Written Fawad Razaqzada | 2018-02-14 13:52:16 GMT

Aussie jobs data in focus

So, while it might be Valentine’s Day, the dollar is finding no love. With that in mind, there’s a good chance the AUD/USD will be able to push further higher tonight barring the release of very disappointing Aussie jobs figures. Employment is expected to have risen by 15,300 in January while the unemployment rate is seen steady at 5.5%. It is worth remembering that the devil is always in the detail: sometimes a strong headline figure masks over the cracks and the employment data looks impressive only because of a rise in part time jobs. So, what the Aussie bulls need to see is a rise in full time employment, regardless of what the headline figure shows.

AUD/USD could extend rally

With the US dollar selling off in reaction to today’s US macro pointers, the AUD/USD is more likely to go up than down in the next couple of days. As a result, we expect the potential dips to old resistance levels at 0.7895 or 0.7875 to be supported. The key bullish objective now is at 0.7990-0.80050. This area was previously support and so could turn into resistance upon re-test. In addition, the 61.8% Fibonacci level also comes into play here. The trend is clearly bullish as indicated for example by rising 50- and 200-day moving averages.

Figure 1:

Author

Fawad Razaqzada
etoro

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