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USD weakens as investors await inflation data

Written John Benjamin | 2018-02-14 03:24:04 GMT

In Japan, the quarterly GDP data showed that the economy advanced only 0.1% on the quarter, missing estimates of a 0.2% increase. The previous quarter's GDP was however revised higher to 0.6%.

Earlier in the day, New Zealand's inflation expectations showed that inflation expectations were seen at 1.86% in one year and 2.1% in two years. The data gave a short term bump to the Kiwi dollar. The RBNZ had previously expected inflation to reach 2% band only around 2019. Looking ahead, the Eurozone quarterly GDP data will be coming out.

No changes are expected as the GDP is expected to remain steady at 0.6%. In the U.S. session, inflation data is expected to show a 0.3% increase on the month while core CPI is forecast to rise 0.2%. Retail sales figures will also be coming out at the same time.


EURUSD intra-day analysis


EURUSD (1.2382): The U.S. dollar weakened which helped to keep the euro posting gains for two consecutive days. The EURUSD was seen advancing back to the resistance level of 1.2363 - 1.2333 level in the overnight trading session. A reversal at this resistance level could signal a near term dip with the potential for the common currency to advance the declines towards the 1.2090 - 1.2070 level of support to the downside. Alternately, if price action manages to break past the resistance level, we could expect to see a new leg to the rally. This will be validated on a breakout above the previous highs posted near 1.2500.


GBPUSD intra-day analysis


GBPUSD (1.3906): The British pound continues to trade with last Friday's range with price advancing to the upside. A breakout from Friday's range could determine the near term bias in the GBPUSD. The British pound gained momentum as the inflation data showed consumer prices edging back to the 3% threshold. This sparked speculation of a faster than expected rate hike from the BoE as previously communicated by the central bank. On the 4-hour time frame, GBPUSD has close above the 1.3855 level of support which has failed to act as resistance. We expect GBPUSD to move sideways with the 1.4037 1.3855 range in the near term.


NZDUSD intra-day analysis


NZDUSD (0.7319): The New Zealand dollar was seen rallying back to the resistance area of 0.7333 0.7280 in early trading today. The kiwi dollar was supported by the stronger inflation expectations data. We expect that the currency pair could turn flat as it trades within this resistance level. The bias remains to the downside with NZDUSD likely to test the lower support around 0.7160. In the event that NZDUSD breaks past the 0.7333 level, we can expect further gains that could be established.


John Benjamin

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