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EURUSD: The dollar traded soft at the end of 2018

Written KBC Market Research Desk | 2018-01-10 06:42:47 GMT

EUR/USD: The dollar traded soft at the end of 2018. US tax reform and a continuation of the Fed's normalisation process were not enough to support the dollar. The EUR/USD 1.21 range top was tested, but no break occurred suggesting that a EUR/USD topside break won't be easy short-term.

EURUSD

EUR/GBP

EUR/GBP stays in a sideways range. The market doesn't expect an additional BoE rate hike anytime soon even as inflation surpassed 3%. The first part of the Brexit deal also failed to convince sterling investors.

EURGBP

USD/JPY

USD/JPY held a relatively tight sideways pattern during the last quarter of 2017 despite rising interest rate support for the dollar. Early 2018, investor speculation that the BOJ might also prepare a less easy policy supported the yen.

USDJPY

EUR/CZK

EUR/CZK: The koruna continued the gradual rise which started after the CNB gave up its koruna cap in April 2017. The CNB raised its policy rate a second time in November and signalled that the CZK might get additional interest support this year.

USDJPY

EUR/PLN

The zloty rebounded since October. Markets assume that ongoing strong growth and tentative signs of higher prices and wages will force the NBP to raise interest rates earlier than expected.

EURCZK

EUR/HUF

EUR/HUF: The forint initially decoupled from the rebound of the Czech koruna and the zloty as the MNB maintained its easing bias despite a solid economic performance. The forint started a catching up move in December.

EURHUF

 

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